Chicago Tribune
Iraq solution may ride on U.S. foes
By Christine Spolar
Tribune foreign correspondent
November 25, 2006
TEHRAN -- The escalating
violence in Iraq has triggered an intense round of consultations among
American officials, Middle East allies and apparently even U.S. foes.
As President Bush prepares to meet Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
next week in Jordan, Iran has planned its own summit over the bloodshed
across its border. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has invited the Iraqi
and Syrian presidents to Tehran this weekend to discuss possible
cooperation in curbing the attacks that threaten to destabilize the
region.
Although Syrian leader Bashar Assad has not confirmed
his appearance, a meeting among the three neighbors holds out hope for
constructive regional talks. Last week, a visit to Iraq by the Syrian
foreign minister produced an agreement to re-establish diplomatic ties
between the two countries for the first time in 25 years.
Analysts have called that visit a breakthrough for the troubled region
and perhaps a helpful development for the Iraq Study Group, a panel of
U.S. officials led by former Secretary of State James Baker that has
been examining alternatives in strategy to stabilize Iraq.
"It's an extremely fluid situation," said Phebe Marr, a historian and
authority on Iraq who advised the Baker group. "The neighbors are
clearly trying to take a bigger role in trying to stop the spread of
violence ... and [the United States] may even be put in the position of
playing catch-up with them."
U.S. entreaty to adversaries?
The Bush administration, which has been asking for help from its Arab
allies in quelling the Shiite-Sunni battle in Iraq, may now have to
consider how to encourage its adversaries to help out. British Prime
Minister Tony Blair has urged more robust talks with Damascus.
Washington has been critical of Syria's meddling in Lebanon, including
possible links to a string of assassinations. The killing this week of
Christian Cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel has again hardened
administration views of Syria and could undermine the Iraq Study
Group's efforts toward Syria.
Iran also is a troublesome
prospect for the U.S. and Britain, which led the coalition that invaded
Iraq. Beyond a long-running dispute with Iran over its nuclear program,
the Bush administration also believes that Iran supports militants in
Iraq, even from competing factions, in order to keep the country a
battleground.
A bloody Thanksgiving Day barrage of sectarian
attacks--which left more than 200 people dead and gruesome retaliatory
violence Friday--only underscored the challenges for the Americans and
even Iran and Syria, some analysts said.
"I imagine events like
[this week] are scaring the wits out of them," said Rosemary Hollis of
the Chatham House think tank in London. "Iran and Syria reckon they are
probably needed for the solution in Iraq--and now the Iranians are
showing that they don't necessarily have to wait for the Americans."
Difficult task for any party
Hollis added that the violence has become so ingrained, and supported
by so many shadowy groups, that Iran and Syria also will have trouble
bringing calm.
"They can't control all the players," Hollis
said, referring to the Iranians. "Even Moqtada Sadr [an anti-American
Shiite cleric in Iraq] can't control all these players."
Several analysts described the engagement between Syria and Iraq as an
opening for Washington, or at least its allies in Iraq, to gain a
clearer picture of the insurgency. Many of the insurgents are believed
to have entered Iraq from Syria.
Some diplomats noted that it
may be a good moment for the Bush administration to give up some of its
harshest rhetoric and realize that leaders in Syria and Iran have not
been weakened after four years of threats from Washington.
"It's clear now that the American strategy to have regime change [in
Iran and Syria] has been abandoned," one Middle East diplomat said.
"It's been a month in which the Americans have been looking for an exit
strategy out of Iraq. And it's become clear to the Americans, finally,
what has been clear all along: You can't do that without Iran."
The diplomat said interest was piqued in the region this week by a
hastily arranged meeting planned for Saturday in Saudi Arabia between
Vice President Dick Cheney and Saudi King Abdullah.
Ibrahim
Hamidi, Damascus bureau chief for the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper,
said he believes Syria's effort in Iraq comes, in part, because of
conversations with the Iraq Study Group. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid
Moallem had spoken to Baker and his co-chairman, former U.S. Rep. Lee
Hamilton.
Hamidi said that Moallem had spokenwith other Middle
East experts who served in prior U.S. administrations, including Dennis
Ross and Martin Indyk.
Syria sent Moallem to Iraq based on a
calculation that in the midst of upheaval its advice would be better
heeded than in the past, Hamidi said.
"They weren't doing it to satisfy the Americans," Hamidi said about
Syria's effort, "but for Iraq's interest and their own."