Turkmenistan Holds Carefully Managed Election

February 11, 2007

MOSCOW, Feb. 11 — Turkmenistan held the first officially contested presidential elections in its history today, conducting a carefully choreographed vote almost certain to be won by a confidante of the reclusive Central Asian nation’s former autocratic leader, who died seven weeks ago.

The election, organized by the tightly controlled state after Saparmurat Niyazov, the only president in the nation’s 15-year history, died on Dec. 21, was not formally monitored by international observers, who sent small teams of experts that are not expected to make any public statement about the government’s conduct.

But the election was being closely followed by the West, Russia and China for signs of whether the anticipated result could be the start of changes in a country with gas reserves that are among the largest in the world. Any changes in its foreign and trade relations could have a deep significance on world energy markets, and especially for Russia and its gas monopoly, Gazprom, which relies in part on Turkmen natural gas to meet its obligations to customers.

Mr. Niyazov, who called himself Turkmenbashi, the Father of All Turkmen, led a bizarre personality cult and kept his country and its five million people isolated from the world.

Since his death, the country has been led by an acting president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov, 49, a former deputy prime minister and health minister.

Under the Turkmen Constitution at the time of Mr. Niyazov’s death, an acting president was barred from running for the office. But the Constitution was amended to accommodate Mr. Berdymukhammedov’s candidacy, a sign that political analysts and diplomats said meant he was certain to defeat his five opponents, all of them also from his party, the only one officially allowed.

The initial reports of voter turnout, released hours after polls closed at 4 p.m. indicated that nearly 99 percent of eligible voters had cast their ballots, a number so high that the opposition in exile said the vote had been flagrantly rigged to ensure an overwhelming victory for Mr. Berdymukhammedov, and to give his victory the patina of legality.

Under Turkmen electoral law, 50 percent of eligible voters must cast their ballots for an election to be valid.

Khudaiberdy Orazov, a former chairman of Turkmenistan’s central bank who now lives in Sweden, said by telephone that the opposition’s sources in Turkmenistan reported only a small fraction of that vote. “Maybe 10 or 12 percent of the people who were eligible actually voted,” he said.

Neither estimate could be independently confirmed, but one Western diplomat, who was reading the cables from Ashgabat, the Turkmen capital, also said by telephone that the official turnout was “implausible.”

The Turkmen government said it expected to have official results early in the week and would hold an inauguration on Wednesday.

For Western countries, which have often been critical of rigged elections in post-Soviet states, the events unfolding in Turkmenistan were accompanied by a noticeable shift in diplomatic tactics.

The week after Mr. Niyazov died, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sent condolences to Mr. Berdymukhammedov, and wrote of “turning a new page” in relations between the two states.

The United States has an embassy in Ashgabat, and has worked with Turkmenistan on counter-narcotic and, counterterrorism efforts and humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. But profound differences remain between the United States and Turkmenistan, especially on human rights.

The country allows no public dissent, suppresses its news media and Internet use, and holds political prisoners. The sole political party was founded by Mr. Niyazov, who ruled his country with a sprawling security apparatus he inherited from the Soviet K.G.B.

During the brief campaign, however, Mr. Berdymukhammedov, who has been largely out of sight, gave a speech saying he wanted to carry out certain reforms, including restoring banned subjects to school curriculums, allowing students to travel abroad and creating universal access to the Internet.

A few prisoners have also been released or moved to lower security jails. The opposition has said these gestures were a sham to deceive the West.

Western countries have signaled a willingness to try to work with the acting president after his expected inauguration, with hopes that they can nudge the country toward reform.

In a telephone interview on Friday, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Evan A. Feigenbaum, who supervises American diplomacy in Central Asia, said, “To be candid, we see an opportunity, as the secretary has said, to turn the page.” He added, “Over time we’d like to see a more open, more prosperous and more democratic Turkmenistan, with more opportunities for the people.”

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which typically sends observation missions to elections in former Soviet states, has also assumed a delicate stance, sending an 11-member team to the country that will not make a public report about electoral irregularities.

Christian Strohal, director of the organization’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, which conducts its election monitoring, said a telephone interview that he is encouraged that Turkmenistan invited the organization’s team and hopes that Western election experts can help Turkmenistan work toward free elections in the future.

“What I hope we can get out of it is a dialogue,” Mr. Strohal said.

“We had freedom of movement to go where we wanted,” he added. “When people are back and we have established the facts and experiences by all of them, we will see what will be the next steps to expand this dialogue.”