Iraqi Casualties Increase by 1,000 a Month

Iraqi Casualties Increase by 1,000 a Month
By Julian E. Barnes
Times Staff Writer

2:24 PM PDT, September 1, 2006

WASHINGTON — In a dismal assessment, the Pentagon reported to Congress today that the number of attacks and civilian deaths in Iraq have risen sharply in recent months — with casualties increasing by 1,000 a month — as sectarian violence has engulfed larger areas of the country.

The quarterly report, based on new government figures, shows that the number of attacks in Iraq over the last four months increased 15% and the number of Iraqi casualties grew by 51%. In the last three months, the report says, the number of deaths and injuries increased by 1,000 people a month over the previous quarter — to more than 3,000 each month.

Over a longer time horizon, the spike is even more grim. The number of weekly attacks has increased from just over 400 in the spring of 2004 to nearly 800 during recent weeks. And the number of daily casualties has increased from just under 30 a day in 2004 to more than 110 a day in recent weeks.

"Extremists seeking to stoke ethno-sectarian strife have increasingly focused their efforts on civilians, inciting a cycle of retribution killings and driving civilian casualties to new highs," the report says.

The report says that Iraq is not in a civil war, but acknowledged that Iraqi civilians are increasingly worried about such a conflict. It reports that Iraqis are optimistic about the future, but cautions that the positive outlook is eroding. Stopping the ethnic and sectarian violence is the "most pressing immediate goal" of the American military and Iraqi government, it says.

The report comes amid a new effort by President Bush and his administration to shore up sagging public support for the Iraq war in advance of the fall elections, but may do little to help the president's case. Administration officials have tried to portray Iraq as the front line in the war on terrorism and have described the effort as part of a larger struggle against Islamic extremists. However, by putting hard numbers to the perception that Iraq is increasingly chaotic, the new Pentagon report stands to further undermine support for the administration's strategy in Iraq.

The violence in Iraq, according to the report, cannot be attributed to a unified or organized insurgency. Instead, violence is the result of a complex interplay between international terrorists, local insurgents, sectarian death squads, organized militias and criminal groups. The armed militias and other sectarian groups are contesting integrated neighborhoods in a bid to expand their area of influence, the report says.

"This is a pretty sober report," said Peter Rodman, the assistant secretary of Defense for international security. "The last quarter has been rough. The level of violence is up. And the sectarian quality of the violence is particularly acute and disturbing."

In arguing that Iraq is not yet in a full-scale civil war, Defense officials pointed out that Iraqi security forces remain loyal to the central government and that no rival government has emerged.

"History tells us in many cases you do not realize it until it is staring you in the face, but there are important things that have not happened," said Rear Adm. William Sullivan, the vice director for strategic plans and policy on the Pentagon's joint staff. "The sectarian violence is worrisome We are not blind to the possibility that this could continue down the wrong path."

Sullivan said he believed that despite the rise in killings, the U.S. was still making progress.

"The violence has increased, but it is primarily Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence," he said.

Although military officials in Iraq repeatedly have emphasized that the majority of recent violence is concentrated in Baghdad, the new report also says that violence has increased in Diyala, Mosul and Kirkuk. The sectarian violence that has enveloped Baghdad, the report says, is now spreading to those cities.

"Any spread of sectarian violence is cause for concern," Sullivan said.

The report says part of the reason for the increased violence is that the attacks on civilians have driven people to "endorse extremist actions on their behalf" — lending their support to the insurgent and militia groups in order to provide security for their neighborhoods. That dynamic is undermining the government's reconciliation efforts and ability to provide security.

According to the report, Muqtada Sadr's Al Mahdi army militia has achieved a "measure of tolerance" from Iraq's new government. But the report says that violence between the Al Madhi army and the Iraqi army is frequent, and says the militia receives support from Iran.

One key indicator of full-scale violence identified in previous Pentagon reports is the number of forced displacements of people and households. Although the U.S. military has been skeptical about reports of large numbers of displaced people in the past, the report quotes a U.N. estimate that 137,862 people have been pushed out of their homes since the Samarra mosque bombing in February.

The mosque bombing is widely seen as setting off the current cycle of sectarian violence. Sunnis allied with Abu Musab Zarqawi, the terrorist leader slain in June in a U.S. attack, were blamed for destroying the mosque, a holy site for Shiites in a largely Sunni city.

The report is optimistic about the new plan to increase security by promoting economic growth, but provides no numbers about the results of the renewed security initiative that began in earnest last month.

Rodman cited as a positive development the report's finding that the Iraqi security forces continue to grow in size and training, with the number of areas in which Iraqi army battalions have taken the lead in providing security expanding between October 2005 and August 2006. He said the number of Iraqi army battalions has increased from 23 in October 2005 to 85 today.

Also, major changes in the nation's police system are underway to address problems and deficiencies. The number of police battalions has decreased from 6 to 2. Last month, military officials said they had been forced to dissolve some national police battalions because they were loyal to militias, not to the central government. The report says public confidence in the national police has decreased and the program is being reformed.

"Unprofessional and, at times, criminal behavior has been attributed to certain units in the national police," the report says.

In its last report to Congress in May, Pentagon officials expressed hope that rapid political progress would earn confidence from Iraqis and blunt the increase in violence. However, delays in forming a new government under Prime Minister Nouri Maliki have quickly undermined those hopes.

Rodman said had the Iraqi government been able to form more quickly after the December election, the sectarian violence that rose from the Samarra mosque bombing might have been dampened.

The delay in forming a government really hurt, it was a partial vacuum," he said.

"For years people like Zarqawi have been aiming at this, trying to foment civil war," Rodman said. "In Samarra they hit pay dirt, in a sense. The system has been shaken by it."

The report notes that the violence has not subsided since the killing of Zarqawi in June. Rodman said although the U.S. has inflicted serious blows on his organization, Al Qaeda in Iraq, the group's role was not decisive.

"The nature of the conflict has changed," Rodman said. "And maybe Zarqawi's legacy was the Samarra bombing, the effects of which have lived after him."