Japan Is in a Quandary Over Iran Nuclear Crisis

From the Los Angeles Times

Japan Is in a Quandary Over Iran Nuclear Crisis
By Bruce Wallace
Times Staff Writer

February 2, 2006

TOKYO — The intensifying crisis over Iran's nuclear activity has thrown a nasty diplomatic curve at Japan, where a big thirst for oil has collided with its self-image as the world's conscience against the spread of nuclear weapons.

Monday's move to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear program has forced many countries — including France, Russia and India — to weigh economic costs against the perils of Tehran possibly joining the atomic weapons club. But only in Japan, which openly aspires to have more clout in global affairs, is the calculus complicated by a foreign policy and self-identity forged on a moral opposition to the spread of nuclear weapons.

As the only nation to have suffered a nuclear attack, with the U.S. bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II, Japan is in a singular position. The collective memory of suffering has been stoked in recent years by an emerging nuclear threat from neighbor North Korea, whose erratic leadership boasts of an atomic arsenal and declares a readiness to do to Japan what Iran has threatened to do to Israel: wipe it off the map.

"It's a very difficult dilemma for Japan and a very sensitive issue inside the government," says Tsutomu Toichi, managing director of the Japan Institute of Energy Economics. Yes, $70-a-barrel oil makes many Japanese uneasy, Toichi says. But this is a country where the incineration of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, leaving more than a quarter of a million dead, remains a powerful influence on public opinion.

"The Japanese public remains very concerned about nuclear weapons development, especially with the very real North Korean threat," he says.

It is a collision of national interests that has left the Japanese government, otherwise desperate to be taken seriously as a major international player, unable to do much more than follow as others lead, softly expressing its hope that Iran will back down.

"It is important that Iran makes a sincere response over its suspected nuclear development," Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi told reporters Tuesday at his official residence, his first comments this year on the Iran crisis. "Japan will cooperate [with the international community] to have it deal properly with the nuclear suspicions."

Koizumi's caution matches that of his Cabinet. Foreign Minister Taro Aso suggested last week that a referral to the Security Council was unlikely to lead to economic sanctions against Iran in the near term.

But many trade and energy officials here worry that the Iranian nuclear crisis is putting Japan's fuel supply at risk. Japan imports almost all its energy — even its large nuclear power industry runs on imported uranium — and is competing with its rivals, China in particular, for new sources.

Iran is Japan's third-largest supplier, delivering 16% of its oil, an amount expected to swell significantly when drilling starts on a joint mega-project to develop Iran's massive Azadegan oil field.

Azadegan is one of the world's largest untapped oil reserves, with an estimated 26 billion barrels. Japan had hoped to begin drilling at the site this year, though the project is being held up because of a dispute over the clearance of land mines, remnants of the war with Iraq in the 1980s.

An influential bloc of trade and energy officials in Tokyo contend that the Azadegan project could reduce Japan's dependence on oil from the Persian Gulf states, which supply more than half the country's imports. The officials have been negotiating to develop the site almost since it was discovered six years ago, resisting strong U.S. pressure to avoid doing business with Tehran. In 2004, they cut a deal that gave Inpex, a Japanese oil company whose major shareholder is the Japanese government, 75% of the field development rights.

Critics note that Washington's opposition to the project dissipated in 2004, about the time Japan sent a contingent of soldiers to aid Iraqi reconstruction. But the Koizumi government also has been very reluctant to join the United States' public scolding of Iran.

"We want the Iranians to back down," says Akira Chiba, a spokesman for Japan's ministry of foreign affairs. "Japan is committed to anti-nuclear proliferation 100%. But it's a question of how, and punching Iran in the face is not our idea of how."

That cautious approach meant Koizumi made no comment last month when Iran resumed some nuclear activities. And no senior Japanese leaders condemned Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's declarations last year that the Holocaust was a "myth" and that Israel should be "wiped off the map."

Japan's only sign of protest was delivered in a private meeting with the Iranian ambassador in Tokyo, who was summoned to meet with foreign affairs bureaucrats.

The Japanese silence was not lost on Israelis, who had planned to raise the matter with Koizumi during a planned trip to the Middle East in January. The visit was canceled after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's stroke.

Yet no matter how tepid it tries to keep its diplomacy, observers say, Japan is unlikely to escape any backlash should Tehran try to use its oil weapon to punish those opposing it.

"They are very concerned about how Iran will respond," Toichi said. "The Japanese government is making every effort to privately persuade the Iranians to back down. But I'm not sure how seriously Iran takes these overtures."